在年底评选的本年度全球十大风云事件中，短时间内令世人措手不及的SARS，势必“榜上有名”。尽管如今SARS疫情已大为改观，然而它所引起的恐慌对经济的影响却不可小觑。

Experts have predicted huge economic losses resulting from SARS -the World Bank, for example, forecast $15 billion in Asia alone.

But while there may be billions of pounds of economic costs associated with SARS, the greatest part of these losses will be the result of an irrational panic2 rather than the disease itself.

The public health costs of dealing with SARS are probably minimal.3 As some researchers have previously argued, the medical impact of SARS is being exaggerated in some way. The losses caused by the public panic, which have already led to a decrease in tourism and could hit production, are a different matter.

Perhaps the clearest example of irrational panic is the widespread avoidance of Chinese restaurants and Chinatowns in the USA. According to the latest figures from the World Health Organisation (WHO), there have so far been 65 cases of SARS in America, and no deaths. David Baltimore, a Nobel prize-winning virologist and the president of the California Institute of Technology,4 argues that: 'The de facto boycott5 of Chinese restaurants across America is the most alarming overreaction, since there's absolutely no reason to think that SARS can be transmitted through food, or by people who happen to be Chinese.'

Worldwide, industries such as airlines and hotels are already suffering from a fear of travel -and this is particularly the case in America. Less tangible but probably more important is the added edge the SARS panic gives to the mood of caution in business.6 Business commitments and investment decisions, which businesses have avoided in recent years, are likely to be postponed yet again as a result of worry about SARS.

But it is Asia -the only area of the world economy that is enjoying reasonably strong economic growth -that is suffering the most serious losses from the SARS panic.

Much of the discussion about the impact of SARS in Asia has focused on Hong Kong, which accounts for many SARS casualties7, and other tourist destinations such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Commen-tators have noted the impact on these countries' entertainment, tourism and retail sectors -as people are travelling less in the region, restaurants are often empty and many consumers are avoiding shops.

The cancellation of trade fairs8 has hit Chinese manufacturers

But potentially the most significant economic damage could be done within mainland China. It is particularly unfortunate that the SARS virus started in Guangdong -the southern province of China that is next to Hong Kong and at the heart of the Chinese manufacturing miracle of the past two decades.

While the world economy has grown slowly in recent years the Chinese economy has surged.9 As a result, China now produces, among other things, over half of the world's cameras, 30 percent of air conditioners and televisions, 25 percent of washing machines and nearly 20 percent of fridges. This surge in production enabled China to overtake Britain in 2002 as the world's sixth largest trading nation.

This growth is not only providing the world with a huge amount of cheap manufactured goods; it is also enabling China to develop. A nation of about 1.3 billion people has the possibility of being lifted out of poverty10 by concerted economic growth. China's growth is also helping to bolster11 the East Asian region, with other countries either exporting to China or investing in the mainland.

The externally oriented character of China's growth surge makes it particularly vulnerable to an over-anxious reaction by its overseas business partners.12 A combination of strong investment from abroad and exports of cheap manufactured goods to the rest of the world has created an economic boom. China has taken over from America as the largest recipient13 of foreign direct investment, with over $50 billion in inflows14 in 2002. And the World Bank estimates that over three-quarters of China's GDP growth in 2002 was the result of export.

The SARS panic threatens to undermine this growth. Foreign investors are nervous about visiting China to invest more money. And the postponement or cancellation of trade fairs has hit Chinese manufacturers, particularly medium and smaller sized exporters, which depend on fairs to sell their goods. Direct sales visits, which are also important to Chinese exporters, have suffered too.

As a result of SARS, the economic growth which could potentially lift many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty is under threat. But it is the SARS panic, much more than the disease, that threatens to blight15 so many lives of the poor in Asia.

1． SARS：即Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome，严重急性呼吸道综合症，由世界卫生组织（WHO）于2003年3月15日正式定名。

2． panic：惊慌，恐慌。

3． 公众医疗在对抗SARS方面的开支也许是最少的。

4． David Baltimore：戴维·巴尔的摩，加州理工大学校长，国际生物学研究领域的权威之一，37岁时获诺贝尔奖。主要研究RNA病毒引起的细胞变形作用，最主要的贡献为发现反转录酶。virologist：病毒学家。

5． de facto：<拉>事实上的, 实际的；boycott: (联合起来) 抵制，拒绝使用。

6． 不那么明显但可能更为重要的是SARS恐慌令生意场上小心翼翼的气氛加剧。

7． casualty：（事故、灾难等的）死者，受害人。

8． trade fair：商品交易会。

9． 近几年来世界经济增长缓慢，而中国经济却迅猛发展。surge：激增，急剧上升。

10. lift out of poverty：摆脱贫困（状态）。

11. bolster：支持。

12. 中国经济激增的外向型特点使它尤其经受不了海外贸易伙伴的过度担忧所带来的打击。

13. recipient：接收者，容纳者。

14. inflow：资金流入。

15. blight：破坏，打击。