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Looking at how far we'll be able to fund2 the Health Service3 in the 21st century raises4 any number of5 thorny issues. Many of the options6 have already been rehearsed7 in the press8: excluding some treatments from the NHS, charging for9 certain drugs and services, and developing voluntary or compulsory health insurance10 schemes11.

Compared to its European Union counterparts12 Britain operates a low-cost health system13: we spend about 7 per cent of GDP14 on health, compared with 9 per cent in the Netherlands and 10 per cent in France and Germany. In terms of health out comes versus spend15, we compare pretty favourably16.

I don't see private health care17 providing much of the solution to18 current problems. More likely is19 a shift from universal health coverage20 to top-up schemes21 which give people basic health entitlements22 but require them to finance23 other treatment through private financing24, or opt-out schemes25 which use tax relief26 to encourage individuals to make private provision27. Neither is close to being implemented, but the future could see28 a deliberate shift of attention to voluntary health insurance and an emphasis on social insurance.

I expect individuals to take greater responsibility for their personal health using technology that allows self-diagnosis followed by self-treatment or home care29. Even so, higher taxes will plainly be needed to fund health care. I think30 we'll eventually see larger NHS charges31, more rationing of medical services and restrictions on certain procedures32 without proven outcomes33. Stricter eligibility criteria34 for certain treatments are another possibility.

All such options would mean a sharp break35 with tradition and political fall-out36 that could be extremely damaging. None of them is going to win votes for the political party desperate enough37 to introduce them but then nobody is going to vote for ill-health or an early death either.

(From CAM: Cambridge Alumni Magazine, No. 28, 1999)

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2. how far... fund...: ×ÖÃæÒâ˼ÊÇ¡®ÔÚΪ¡­¡­Ìṩ×ʽð·½ÃæÄÜ×ß¶àÔ¶¡¯£¬Ò²¾ÍÊÇ¡®ÄÜΪ¡­¡­Ìṩ¶àÉÙ×ʽ𡯡£

3. the Health Service: ÕâÀïÖ¸National Health Service¡£

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7. rehearsed: ±¾ÒåÊÇ¡®ÅÅÁ·¡¯£¬ÓÉÓÚÕýʽÑݳöǰµÄÅÅÁ·Ò»°ã²»Ö¹Ò»´Î£¬´Ë´¦Ó¦Àí½âΪ¡®¶à´ÎÌÖÂÛ¡¯¡£

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11. schemes£ºÕâ¸ö´ÊÔÚ±í´ï¡®¼Æ»®¡¢Öƶȡ¯µÈÒâ˼ʱ£¬ÊÇÓ¢¹úÓ¢ÓïÓ÷¨¡£

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14. GDP£ºGross Domestic Product£¨¹úÄÚÉú²ú×ÜÖµ£©µÄËõд¡£

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16. compare pretty favourably: ÕâÀïµÄÒâ˼ÊÇ¡®±ÈÆðÆäËû¹ú¼Ò£¬ÎÒÃDZíÏÖµÃÏ൱²»´í¡¯¡£

17. private health care: ˽·ÑÒ½ÁƱ£½¡¡£

18. providing... solution to: ÕâÀïµÄÒâ˼²»ÊÇ¡®Ìṩ½â¾öĿǰÎÊÌâµÄÐí¶à°ì·¨¡¯£¬¶øÊÇ¡®¶ÔÓÚ½â¾öĿǰÎÊÌâÆð¶à´ó×÷Óᯡ£

19. more likely is: ÕâÀïµÄÒâ˼ÊÇ¡®¸üÓпÉÄܽâ¾öÎÊÌâµÄÊÇ¡¯£¬²»·ÁÁé»îÒë³É¡°¸ü¿ÉÐеİ취ÊÇ¡±¡£

20. universal health coverage: È«ÃñÒ½ÁƱ£½¡ÖÆ¡£

21. top-up schemes: ²¹²î¸¶·ÑÖÆ¡£

22. health entitlements: Ò½ÁƱ£½¡È¨¡£

23. finance: = pay for.¸¶·Ñ¡£

24. through private financing: ×Ô³ï×ʽð¡£

25. or opt-out scheme: ǰһ¾ä¼ÈÈ»ÊÇ¡°¸ü¿ÉÐеİ취ÊÇ¡±£¬ÕâÀï×îºÃ¼ÓһЩ»°£¬Òë³É¡°ÁíÒ»¸ö°ì·¨ÊÇʵÐÐÍ˳öÖÆ¡±¡£

26. tax relief: ¼õ˰¡£

27. make private provision: make provisionµÄÒâ˼ÊÇ¡®Îª¡­¡­×÷³ö³ï»®¡¢×¼±¸£¬Î´Óê³ñçÑ¡¯£¬make private provisionÔÚÕâÀïÖ¸¡°¸öÈ˽â¾ö×Ô¼ºµÄÒ½ÁƱ£ÏÕÎÊÌ⡱¡£

28. the future could see: Ó¢Óï¾­³£ÓÃÒ»¸ö±íʾʱ¼äµÄ¶ÌÓï×÷Ö÷ÓÒÔsee×÷¶¯´Ê£¬ÒÔ±íʾÊÂÇé·¢ÉúµÄÃû´Ê¶ÌÓï×÷±öÓ±í´ïÔÚijʱ¼ä·¢ÉúijÊ¡£·­Òëʱ²»¹Üsee£¬Ö±½Ó°Ñ×÷Ϊ±öÓïµÄÃû´Ê¶ÌÓïת»»³É¾ä×Ó¼´¿É¡£

29. home care: ¼Ò¾Ó»¤Àí¡£

30. I think£ºÕâÀï¿ÉÒÔ²»Ò룬ÒòΪÕâÒ»¶Î¿ªÍ·ÓС°ÎÒÔ¤¼Æ¡±¡£

31. larger NHS charges: ¹úÃñ±£½¡·þÎñÊÕ·Ñ»á¸ü¸ß¡£²»ÄÜÒë³É¡°¸ü´óµÄ¹úÃñ±£½¡·þÎñÊÕ·Ñ¡±¡£

32. procedure: Õâ¸ö´ÊµÄÒâ˼һ°ãÊÇ¡®³ÌÐò¡¯£¬ÕâÀïÓëÒ½ÁÆÓйأ¬ÓÖÇ£³¶µ½outcomes£¬Ó¦µ±×÷¡®ÁÆ·¨¡¯Àí½â¡£

33. outcomes: ÓëÒ½ÁÆÓйصĽá¹ûÊÇ¡°Ð§¹û¡±¡£

34. stricter eligibility criteria: ¼òµ¥Òë³É¡°¸üÑϸñµÄ×ʸñ±ê×¼¡±Òâ˼²»Çå³þ£¬µÃ·ÑµãÊ£¬Òë³É¡°½«ÓиüÑϸñµÄ±ê×¼£¬¹æ¶¨Ê²Ã´Çé¿ö²ÅÓÐ×ʸñ¡­¡"¡£

35. sharp break: ¡°³¹µ×¾öÁÑ¡±»ò¡°Ò»µ¶Á½¶Ï¡±¡£

36. fallout: Ëù²úÉúµÄÓ°Ïì¡£

37. desperate enough: Íò²»µÃÒÑ¡£²»ÄÜÒë³É¡°×ã¹»¾øÍû¡±¡£