It's not technology that will determine the shape1 of land transport
so much as2 political, economic and environmental
considerations. We can build stronger, quieter roads with better skid-resistance3
now, but we don't because of the cost.4 We
could halve5 traffic noise by putting noise
barriers6 along motorways7
and designing lorries8 with less exhaust and
tyre noise,9 but we won't10
pay the bill.11
The environmental lobby12 has had a huge impact
on car manufacturers and emission13 control
has improved14 a lot. But there's still some
way to go15 on the air pollution front,16
particularly for17 lorries which run on diesel
fuel,18 which is bad19
because of its particulate emissions20— the
soot particles emitted when it is burnt.
Cars and lorries could be driven by21 electric
motors if fuel-cells, which convert fuel into electricity without burning
it, can be made more efficient. However, they've been touted22
now for a generation and have never really met expectations.23
American domination24 of the automotive industry25
makes rapid progress unlikely. Because the cost of gasoline is so low
in the States,26 there's not much incentive
to develop fuel-cells and electric vehicles for widespread use.
When it comes to27 communication,28
we already have Trafficmaster,29 which operates
from transducers30 on motorway bridges to gauge31
the speed of the traffic and warn of32 blockages33
ahead. We also have global navigation satellites34
that can pinpoint your position. The challenge35
is to provide a full driver-guidance system that can tell you the best
direction36 to go in a way you can absorb37
at the wheel.38
Otherwise,39 the next big step40
in transport technology will be automated roads: regulating41
vehicles in convoys on motorways so that they're safer and can be packed
closer42 together. Sensors would establish43
what is around each vehicle44 and electronic
control systems would keep them moving in the right direction, at the
right safe speed, with maximum comfort and economy. The technology is
massively45 expensive now, but eventually it
will become a reality. You would just pay a toll,46
couple your car into an electronic convoy47
and sit back48 to enjoy the journey.
Motorways will gradually become more like railways, with freight vehicles
electronically coupled in trains running at relatively high speeds.
At suitable intervals, they would uncouple49
to travel the remainder of the journey with their own driver.50
That's almost certainly going to happen. It would make better use of
the roads and be safer, cheaper and greener,51
as well as making driving more pleasant for everyone. In Adelaide52
there are already buses that run on an automated route for part of their
journey.53
That sort of combination of personal and centralized control is the
direction we're going54 in road transport,
probably first of all for freight.55 Any rail
system has in the end56 to be inflexible,57
it doesn't go58 where you59
want, especially in rural communities, where the nearest station can
be 30 miles away. We're wedded to60 private
cars, because of their flexibility and the pride people take in ownership61—not
to mention the huge sums we've spent on the road network.
So cars aren't going to go away.62 But under
electronic control they will become greener and safer. In 50 years time
driving your own car on a fast motorway, mixed up with lorries, and
passing at a closing speed63 of 150mph within
a few metres of people driving other vehicles in the opposite direction64
will seem complete insanity!65
(From CAM: Cambridge Alumni Magazine, No.28,1999)