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TELECOMS电信
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The communications
explosion is on the scale of1 the rail, automobile or telephone revolution.
Very soon you'll be able to record your entire life electronically2—anything
a microphone or a camera can sense3 you'll be able to store. In particular,
the number of images4 a person captures5 in a lifetime is set to6 rise
exponentially.7 The thousand images a year I take of my children on a
digital camera8 are all precious to me. In a generation's time,9 my children's
children will have total image documentation10 of their entire lives—
a visual log11 of tremendous personal value.
By then we'll be wrestling with12 another question: how we control all the electronic devices13 connected to the internet: trillions14 of PCs,15 laptops,16 palmpilots,17 cell phones18 and other gadgets.19 In Cambridge, we're already working on millimetre-square computing and sensing devices20 that can be linked to the internet through the radio network. This sort of connectivity will expand dramatically as microscopic communications devices become dirt-cheap21 and multiply.22 Just imagine what the paint on the wall could do if it had this sort of communications dust23 in it: change colour, play music, show movies or even speak to you. Falling costs raise24 other possibilities too. Because launching space vehicles is about to become very much cheaper, the number of satellites is likely to go up exponentially. There's lots25 of space up there so we could have millions of them. And if you have millions of low-orbit26 satellites you can establish a global communications network that completely does away with27 towers and masts.28 If the satellites worked on the cellular principle29 so you got spatial reuse30 of frequencies, system capacity would be amazing. Speech is so flexible that31 I expect voice communication to become almost free eventually: you'll pay just a monthly fixed charge32 and be able to make as many calls as you want. By then people will also have fixed links33 with business contacts, friends and relatives. One day I anticipate being able to keep in touch with34 my family in Poland on a fibreoptic audio-video link;35 we'll be able to have a little ceremony at supper-time, open the curtains and sit down "together" to eat.36 Cars are an interesting IT-platform37 because they have big batteries and lots of so far unconnected digital devices. Soon each one will be an entity38 on the internet so your children can play interactive games39 while you're travelling and your partner can deal with40 their email. And every lamppost could be on the internet too—each one with sensors41 to monitor light, pollution, air quality and traffic flow.42 |
通讯爆炸规模之大，不亚于火车、汽车及电话的革命。很快人们就可以用电子技术记录下自己整个一生——麦克风或照相机能感应的任何东西都能储存下来。特别是，人们一生所拍照片的数量肯定会剧增。每年我用数码相机为我的孩子们拍摄上千张照片，这些照片对我都很珍贵。再过几十年，我孩子的孩子将会拥有关于他们整个一生的全部图像资料——这将是具有极大个人价值的视觉日志。 到那时，我们需要下力气解决另外一个问题：如何控制连接在互联网上的所有电子设备：不计其数的台式电脑、手提电脑、掌上电脑、移动电话及其他电子玩意儿。在剑桥大学，我们正在研制仅有一平方毫米大小的计算和感应装置。这些装置可以通过无线电网络与互联网连接。随着显微通讯装置便宜到毫不值钱、随处可见的地步，这种连接将急速扩展。想想看，假如在墙上的涂料中加入这种通讯粉末，那它会有何等奇妙的功能：变换颜色、播放音乐、放映电影、甚至对你讲话。 成本下降还会使其他许多事情变为可能。因为发射太空运载工具很快就会便宜许多，卫星的数量很可能直线上升。太空有的是空间，可以容纳数百万颗卫星。我们如果拥有数百万颗低轨道卫星，就可以建立一个全球通讯网络，彻底淘汰那些转播塔和转播天线。如果这些卫星能够按照蜂窝原理运行，我们就能做到频率在空间的重复利用，系统容量会大得令人吃惊。 话语实在是灵活方便，所以我期待有声通讯最终能便宜到几乎免费：人们只需按月缴纳定额费用，便可以想打多少电话就打多少电话。到那时，人们还会享有与工作上的关系户、亲戚和朋友的固定连线。我预见有朝一日能够通过光纤视听连线与远在波兰的家人保持联系。我们可以在晚饭时间举行一个小小的仪式，拉开幕帘，然后“一起”坐下共进晚餐。 汽车是一个有意思的信息技术平台，因为汽车上装有大容量电池和许多目前尚未连线的数字装置。很快，每辆汽车都将成为互联网上的一个实体。这样，在外出旅行时，你的孩子们可以在车里玩互动游戏，你的伴侣可以处理电子邮件。每一根电线杆也能与互联网相连——每一根电线杆上都装有感应器，用来监测公路上的照明、污染、空气质量和车流量。
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